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Started June 3, 2019

Steps in running model

  • get weather data from source
    • cron running on arcus.sws.uiuc.edu
    • data 2 days behind current date
    • verified  
  • daily weather
    • convert to cm and celsius
    • average min and max temps
    • put into year-month-week dictionary
    • (verified  )
  • calculate_seasonal_weather
    • problem with seasons  
      • change made large difference in winter seasonal values (below)
    • values:
      • temp avg summed and divided by 13
      • precip avg is summed (not divided by 13) (changed  to divided by 13)
  • calculate_weekly_30yr_normals
    • looks ok
  • calculate_seasonal_30yr_normals
    • mistake  divided season average by 13 not 30
calculate_seasonal_weatherNotesoutput winter 2016Coefficients
before
        for epi_week in weekly_weather[epi_year]:

            if count_years > 1:
                if 1 <= epi_week <= 9:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year-1][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year-1][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
                if 49 <= epi_week <= 52:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
            if 23 <= epi_week <= 35:
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["summer"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["summer"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
            if 10 <= epi_week <= 22:
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["spring"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["spring"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
            if 36 <= epi_week <= 48:
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["fall"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                seasonal_weather[epi_year]["fall"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
  • For winter, previous calendar year should be for weeks 49-52(3) not 1-9
  • for first year of data, all seasons within if count_years > 1 block
before
2016: {'fall': {'degree_week_average_c': 16.087301587301575,
                 'precip_week_average_cm': 21.488400000000002},
        'spring': {'degree_week_average_c': 0,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 28.5242},
        'summer': {'degree_week_average_c': 6.838827838827833,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 40.9194},
        'winter': {'degree_week_average_c': 4.9499389499389475,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 11.556999999999999}},
before
  "2": {
    "dw2preci4": "-0.0005795453",
    "lastsummertemp": "0",
    "wintertemp": "0.1617251",
    "dw2preci3": "-0.1668376",
    "dw2preci2": "0.003797379",
    "dw2preci1": "-0.3367884",
    "dw3preci1": "0.293194",
    "dw1preci4": "-0.02145926",
    "precilag1": "-0.04565507",
    "dwlag1": "0.6759879",
    "winterpreci": "0",
    "dwlag3": "-0.3623205",
    "springtemp": "-1.443487",
    "dw3preci3": "0.08177531",
    "dw1preci2": "-0.06263824",
    "dw1preci3": "0.02926325"
  }
after
            for epi_week in weekly_weather[epi_year]:
                if 1 <= epi_week <= 9:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
                if 49 <= epi_week <= 52:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year-1][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["winter"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year-1][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
                if 23 <= epi_week <= 35:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["summer"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["summer"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
                if 10 <= epi_week <= 22:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["spring"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["spring"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]
                if 36 <= epi_week <= 48:
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["fall"]["degree_week_average_c"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["degree_week_c"]
                    seasonal_weather[epi_year]["fall"]["precip_week_average_cm"] += weekly_weather[epi_year][epi_week]["precip_cm"]

after
 2016: {'fall': {'degree_week_average_c': 16.087301587301575,
                 'precip_week_average_cm': 21.488400000000002},
        'spring': {'degree_week_average_c': 0,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 28.5242},
        'summer': {'degree_week_average_c': 6.838827838827833,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 40.9194},
        'winter': {'degree_week_average_c': 2.1733821733821777,
                   'precip_week_average_cm': 18.7706}},
after
 
{
"2": {
"dw2preci4": "0.05358239",
"lastsummertemp": "0.8415992",
"wintertemp": "-1.313953",
"dw2preci3": "-0.1343593",
"dw2preci2": "-0.05608847",
"dw2preci1": "-0.3259052",
"dw3preci1": "0.2693502",
"dw1preci4": "-0.07662612",
"precilag1": "-0.01489565",
"dwlag1": "0.6213925",
"winterpreci": "-0.07753674",
"dwlag3": "-0.3471082",
"springtemp": "1.298059",
"dw3preci3": "0.06238141",
"dw1preci2": "-0.01130325",
"dw1preci3": "0.007980013"
}
}

Compare input parameters (diffs) for 2005 week 18 illinois climate div 2  

parameterpythonmastercomments
precip-1.83-1.83looks like all are the same
precip_lag_1-1.54-0.15other lags with order of mag diff








































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